After a delayed onset over Kerala on June 3 this year, the southwest monsoon covered more than three-fourths of India within ten days. By mid-June, the country had witnessed 33% excess rainfall on average, but after June 16, the rains turned scanty across the country except for East and Northeast India.
By mid-June, the country had witnessed 33% excess rainfall on average, but after June 16, the rains turned scanty across the country except for East and Northeast India. By the end of June, the excess rainfall figure had fallen to 10%.
As of July 10, the total rainfall across the country has turned ‘below normal’ with a total shortfall of 7%. Since the third week of June, monsoon rains have remained subdued across most parts of India, except east and northeast.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) categorises monsoon rainfall between 96 to 104% of the long-period average as ‘normal’, meaning a rainfall deficit of more than 4% is considered below-normal.
While this is true for the entire season, it is also crucial for the monsoon to remain normal during the initial phase as it has a substantial bearing on the Kharif crop sowing.
Some parts of the country like Delhi, Punjab, and Rajasthan still await the first drops of monsoon. On the other hand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, West Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Kerala have received much less rainfall than average despite the monsoon onset.
The northern limit of Southwest Monsoon—stalled over Barmer, Aligarh, Meerut, Ambala and Amritsar for more than three weeks—is finally showing signs of progress into Delhi & the remaining areas of Rajasthan, West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and Punjab by Sunday, July 11.The lower-level easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal have reached Delhi and Haryana on Saturday, feeding more moisture into the region.
As per the forecast, the cyclonic circulation over the west-central Bay of Bengal will gain strength this weekend, and a low-pressure area is likely to form on Sunday, July 11.
Accordingly, the national forecaster has issued a ‘red warning’ across southern and western coastal regions for the next few days, which is the highest warning urging residents to ‘take action’ to protect themselves from adverse weather conditions.